Felix: There was this founder, right? She told Paul Graham her company was growing at ninety-three percent last month.
Katya: Ninety-three percent? Is that... (beat) is that even possible?
Felix: Ja. And he, you know, he just looked at her and said, "Your net worth? It's also growing ninety-three percent a month." Just like that.
Katya: Oh. So she's not just running a successful company, she's also getting rich, fast. Okay, that makes sense.
Felix: Ja, right? He was explaining all of this, by the way, in a talk at the Oxford Union. He, uh, he started by telling everyone, "Take out your phones, please." And, like, do a little math.
Katya: A math problem? For an audience?
Felix: Exactly. He wanted them to calculate the log base 1.93 of 500. So, how many times... what is it? How many times you multiply 1.93 by itself to get 500. And the answer—
Katya: —Was 9.45. I remember.
Felix: Ja, exactly. And what this 9.45 means, he says, is...
Katya: Is it, like, how fast you get rich?
Felix: Yes, it's how many months it takes for a company, if it starts maybe at two million, to reach a billion-dollar valuation, if it's growing at that ninety-three percent every month.
Katya: Less than ten months. Two million to a billion. That's... it almost makes it sound like it's easy. Like it's nothing.
Felix: Genau. His point, you know, is that the gap between, let's say, a couple of million and a billion, it's not some... what's the word? Some 'radical' difference, or a moral failing even. It's just, you know, surprisingly short if the growth rate is high. It's... just math.
Katya: "It's just math." That's the part that really... I mean, it hit me. Because he mentions this politician, right? Who said it's impossible to "earn" a billion dollars without cheating, exploiting people. And then Graham brings up this founder with her 93% growth.
Felix: Ja, and her company's growing because users, they love what she built, right? They tell their friends. It's not exploitation, it's... very enthusiastic customers.
Katya: Exactly. So she's not doing anything bad. She's making people happy. And that, then, generates this exponential growth. And then the math just... it shows you how quickly that translates to, uh, wealth.
Felix: He even gives a more... I don't know, a "normal" number. Like, what if your company is not doing the ninety-three percent a month, but something more common? Say, fifteen percent?
Katya: Fifteen percent. That's still really good.
Felix: Still good, ja. For a startup.
Katya: But not, like, crazy numbers.
Felix: Not crazy. And if you sustain that, for what is it, like, five years? Sixty months?
Katya: Sixty months. And your, what, ten thousand dollars a month in revenue becomes five hundred twenty-six million a year.
Felix: Half a billion.
Katya: Half a billion.
Felix: And if you own a typical founder's share—you know, thirty, forty percent—then you are also a billionaire. It's... it's not a different world, you know? It's just a few quarters, maybe a few years away.
Katya: The key, he says, for this kind of sustained growth, is that you have to make something people love. Love so much they tell their friends. The growth rate is almost like a proxy for... I don't know, for the love people have for your product.
Felix: And that's where I thought... okay, but how do you do that? This is the real trick, no?
Katya: He addresses it directly. He says to find a product people will love, you should, uh... you should solve a need you yourself have.
Felix: Me?
Katya: Yes, especially if you're young, your own problems, they kind of predict future mass-market demand. Whatever you and your friends start using now...
Felix: ...everyone uses later?
Katya: Exactly. In, like, ten years.
Felix: So don't try to guess what others want. Just look inward. Solve your own problems.
Katya: You know, this whole idea, "make something people love," it really resonates because I had a friend. She ran a startup, and they were so obsessed with their growth rate. Always, "ten percent month-over-month!" It sounded very good on paper. Very impressive.
Felix: Yeah, ten percent, that's decent.
Katya: Yes, but it was all from paid acquisition. They were just... buying users. And the moment they turned off the ad spend? The growth just went to zero. (beat) Completely. They weren't making something people loved; they were just buying users who didn't stick around. And that "make something people love" part? That's the whole game. This math equation completely glides over how impossible that part is, sometimes. (beat)
Felix: Ach, that's... that's a very good point, Katya. It's like the math, it's so clean, but the reality of getting those two numbers to work for you... that's the messy part.
Katya: Exactly. So on one hand, it feels like this very clean, mathematical explanation of value creation. You make something good, people use it, growth, boom, billionaire. It's almost... empowering, you know?
Felix: Ja, it makes it sound like, "Oh, I can do that!" (laughing) It's not some black magic, it's just, you know, these two variables, as he says.
Katya: But then... is it an oversimplification? Because it ignores so many other things.
Felix: Like what?
Katya: The negative externalities? The luck? The often ruthless tactics that are sometimes required to sustain that kind of growth, or just to get the attention in the first place?
Felix: That's what I'm thinking, Katya. I mean, can you really get that rich, that quickly, without someone somewhere paying a price? Or without some serious competitive elbows being thrown, eh?
Katya: He says, "You don't have to cheat to become a billionaire." That's his main point. He frames it as a choice between two numbers: the growth rate, and how long it continues. And he says, "It's certainly not impossible to grow at fifteen percent a month without cheating." You can't cheat to increase market size, he adds.
Felix: Mmm, I understand his argument, but it feels a little too... neat, no? Like, is the world truly just about making something people love, and the money just... follows from that?
Katya: No, no, it's not just about that—
Felix: Because it feels like it leaves out so much of the actual struggle, the market dynamics. All this sheer force of will that people put into building these companies.
Katya: I think his point is more about the fundamental driver. If you're solving a real problem for people, and they love your solution, yes, the growth will come. And the wealth, that's just the mathematical outcome. It doesn't mean it's easy, or that there are no obstacles, but that the core mechanism, it isn't exploitation.
Felix: So it always comes back to solving your own problems. That's where it all begins, this whole thing. It's not some mysterious quest for an idea, but an act of... of self-reflection, almost.
Katya: Yes, the path to massive success, he implies, it starts with what you yourself need. Your own desires, they are your most valuable signal.
Felix: It's... it makes it feel very personal, in a way. I'm Felix.
Katya: And I'm Katya.